Renowned Election Forecaster Allan Lichtman Hints at Biden Victory in 2024
Allan Lichtman, the esteemed American University history professor who has accurately predicted the outcome of every U.S. presidential election since 1984, has provided a tantalizing glimpse into his forecast for the 2024 race.
In a recent interview with The Guardian, Lichtman revealed that President Joe Biden currently holds an advantage over former President Donald Trump in his renowned “13 Keys to the White House” system.
developed in collaboration with Russian scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, relies on 13 true/false statements about the incumbent party’s performance and the political climate. If six or more of these “keys” turn against the incumbent party, the challenger is predicted to win the White House.
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According to Lichtman, Biden has already secured two crucial keys: the incumbency key and the contest key, as he faces no significant primary challenge within the Democratic Party.
“That’s two keys off the top. That means six more keys would have to fall to predict his defeat. A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose,” Lichtman told The Guardian.
Despite his impressive track record, Lichtman’s sole misstep came in 2000 when he predicted a victory for Al Gore over George W. Bush.
However, he maintains that his forecast was technically correct, as Gore won the popular vote, and the outcome was ultimately decided by the controversial Florida recount and Supreme Court decision.
Lichtman’s keys have proven remarkably resilient, even in the face of unprecedented events like the criminal indictments against Trump.
However, he acknowledges that “it’s always possible there could be a cataclysmic enough event outside the scope of the keys that could affect the election.”
While Lichtman’s early assessment favors Biden, he plans to release his final prediction in August.
The remaining keys, which address factors such as major policy changes, social unrest, and foreign policy successes or failures, could still tip the balance in Trump’s favor.
As the 2024 race heats up, Lichtman’s insights are sure to capture the attention of pundits and voters alike. With his uncanny ability to cut through the noise of polls and punditry, Lichtman’s “13 Keys” offer a unique perspective on the underlying dynamics that shape presidential elections.
As the nation awaits his final verdict, one thing is certain: Allan Lichtman‘s predictions will be closely watched as the battle for the White House unfolds.
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